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Résumé de la discussion (messages les plus récents en premier)
- freddy
- 11-11-2014 23:55:24
Salut,
sage décision.
Sinon, pour les simulations, faire attention aux pseudo-générateurs aléatoires. Il est possible qu'au bout de 1.000 réalisations, il reprenne le même chemin et génère donc la même suite "aléatoire", ce qui biaise considérablement les résultats. Le générateur de petitmou est dans ce cas.
Un bon générateur, le Mersenne's twister, qui repousse assez loin le risque de boucler sur soi-même.
- yoshi
- 11-11-2014 19:13:16
Bemo
Cette fois tu es banni définitif...
Ta grossièreté est inexcusable et n'a pas sa place ici !
Ça commence à bien faire...
@-
- Bemo52
- 11-11-2014 18:19:08
Bemo52 a écrit :Je n`ai jamais dit que les lancers de piece etaient dependants.
Moi non plus...
Et c`est quoi les bouquins qu`il a lu le monsieur?
Je suis curieux de le savoir.
Oh! non non mais t`es qui toi?
Oser poser une telle question a un gourou des probas c`est un crime de lese-chastete (nespa?).
Montre ton cul que je vois.
Voir le cul des autres ah ca ouais!
Je vais te manquer de respect encore une fois car tu te prends pour un gourou et tu n`es que de la merde crottement crottee!!!
Va te faire enculer minable!
- tibo
- 11-11-2014 17:59:04
Je n`ai jamais dit que les lancers de piece etaient dependants.
Moi non plus...
Peut-être voulais-tu dire "Je n`ai jamais dit que les lancers de piece etaient INdependants."
Il est vrai que tu n'as jamais dit que les lancers étaient indépendants.
Et donc? Les lancers sont-il indépendants ou non?
J'ai supposé, à tort, que c'était sous-entendu, surtout par convenance.
En effet, la plupart des grands théorèmes de probabilité ne fonctionnent que lorsque les lancers sont indépendants.
S'il ne le sont pas, il va falloir que tu explicites cette dépendance, sans quoi personne ne peut répondre à tes questions.
Même les simulations de Yoshi sont faites en supposant que les lancers sont aléatoires et deviennent complétement fausses en cas de dépendances.
PS : Et si je t'ai demandé ton niveau, ce n'est pas pour me conforter de quoique ce soit. Ici c'est un forum d'entraide, et c'est bien pour t'aider que Yoshi et moi-même te répondons, et même freddy au début malgré son style un peu abrupt. Si je t'ai demandé c'est pour savoir sur quelles bases on peut se placer pour d'aider au mieux.
Puisque que tu me demandes, j'ai suivi des cours de probabilités et ai du lire au cours de ma formation de mathématiques des livres d'un assez bon niveau, mais je ne suis pas du tout un spécialiste et les probabilités ne sont pas du tout mon domaine de prédilection. D'autres (notamment sur ce forum) ont un niveau bien supérieur au mien.
[edit] Le PS a été rajouté avant que je ne lise la "remarquable" réponse de Bemo52.
- Bemo52
- 11-11-2014 16:27:13
Salut,
Au risque de me répéter, tous les lancers sont indépendants.
Donc le lancer t-1 n'a aucune influence sur le lancer t.
Donc les lancers où le joueur ne mise pas n'ont aucune influence sur les lancers où le joueur mise.
Pire encore, vu que le joueur ne mise, il ne perd ni ne gagne rien. Donc ces lancers ne servent a rien du tout et ne font que cacher la vrai nature du problème.
Si on les retire de la simulation, on obtient une suite de [tex]\pm1[/tex] avec chacun une proba de 1/2 et... Ohhh! Une simple marche aléatoire sur Z.
Et d'après le théorème qui dit que "tout marcheur bourré finit par rentrer chez lui"
on en déduit que pour tout entier k, l'objectif de gain, on arrivera toujours a atteindre cet objectif mais le nombre de lancers peut être très grand.Bon, et la je te vois venir : "je n'ai toujours pas compris ce que tu dis, et je ne sais pas ou tu vas..."
C'est possible mais dans ce cas dis moi quelle point de mon raisonnement ne colle pas avec ta "théorie" ou s'il y a un point qui te parait faux.
Ou alors dis nous ton objectif final, tu ne crois pas que ça nous aiderais un peu de savoir ou on va?Si possible, j'aimerais également connaitre ton niveau en probabilite, ou plus exactement les livres que tu aurais lu a ce sujet car la littérature dans ce domaine est immence et j'ai l'impression que tu cherches a réinventer l'eau chaude.
Tres serieusement, tu enfonces des portes ouvertes.
Tu reponds a tes propres questions pas aux miennes. Tu me fais dire des choses que je n`ai jamais dites et forcement tu ne peux qu`avoir raison.
Je n`ai jamais dit que les lancers de piece etaient dependants.
Je n`ai jamais dit avoir invente quoique ce soit.
Tu faconnes les questions selon ta vision des choses.
Cela devient de la soliloquerie si tu vois ce que je veux dire.
- Bemo52
- 11-11-2014 16:21:47
Salut,
Tu me demandes mon niveau en probabilite, je me demande pourquoi. Mon niveau c`est le caniveau si cela peut te conforter.
Et toi qu`as-tu lu comme bouquins en probabilite?
- tibo
- 11-11-2014 09:45:39
Salut,
Au risque de me répéter, tous les lancers sont indépendants.
Donc le lancer t-1 n'a aucune influence sur le lancer t.
Donc les lancers où le joueur ne mise pas n'ont aucune influence sur les lancers où le joueur mise.
Pire encore, vu que le joueur ne mise, il ne perd ni ne gagne rien. Donc ces lancers ne servent a rien du tout et ne font que cacher la vrai nature du problème.
Si on les retire de la simulation, on obtient une suite de [tex]\pm1[/tex] avec chacun une proba de 1/2 et... Ohhh! Une simple marche aléatoire sur Z.
Et d'après le théorème qui dit que "tout marcheur bourré finit par rentrer chez lui"
on en déduit que pour tout entier k, l'objectif de gain, on arrivera toujours a atteindre cet objectif mais le nombre de lancers peut être très grand.
Bon, et la je te vois venir : "je n'ai toujours pas compris ce que tu dis, et je ne sais pas ou tu vas..."
C'est possible mais dans ce cas dis moi quelle point de mon raisonnement ne colle pas avec ta "théorie" ou s'il y a un point qui te parait faux.
Ou alors dis nous ton objectif final, tu ne crois pas que ça nous aiderais un peu de savoir ou on va?
Si possible, j'aimerais également connaitre ton niveau en probabilite, ou plus exactement les livres que tu aurais lu a ce sujet car la littérature dans ce domaine est immence et j'ai l'impression que tu cherches a réinventer l'eau chaude.
- Bemo52
- 10-11-2014 19:57:09
Je parle d`un autre forum (lesmathematiques net) ou j`ai pose le probleme.
Ici, j`ai parle de copier-coller a propos d`une enigme.
J`en ai visite des forums en plusieurs langues parlant d`enigmes. Copier coller copier coller et rien d`autre. Les gens s`approprient des enigmes qui ne sont pas les leurs. Forecement, cela m`irrite et m`agace.
Cela dit, merci a toi.
Je n`aime pas que quelqu`un vienne me dire que la loi binomiale s`applique alors qu`elle ne s`applique pas. Il ne s`excuse meme pas d`avoir eu tort.
Je vous laisse.
Cette fois, je quitte vraiment.
Je suis anachronique.
Bonne chance a tous.
- yoshi
- 10-11-2014 19:40:04
Bonsoir,
Que tu tiennes à avoir une réponse, c'est normal ! Cette réponse serait instructive à beaucoup d'égards
Mais que tu dises :
J'ai ete banni d`un forum pour avoir ose dire non.
n'est pas exact, si tu parles de celui-ci...
Si tu parles de forum, donc, tu as eu droit à un "carton blanc", tu as été mis en "vacances" jusqu'au 1/11, mais pas parce que tu as "osé dire non"...
Non, absolument pas !
Je pensais qu'ayant profité de vacances ^_^, "du passé tu aurais fait table rase"...
Je souhaiterais donc que l'incident soit considéré comme clos et que ce ne soit plus évoqué surtout avec cette explication...
Est-ce que c'est assez clair ?
Merci d'avance...
Yoshi
- Modérateur -
- Bemo52
- 10-11-2014 19:06:31
Je veux bien que quelqu`un m`explique comment la loi binomiale s`applique au probleme que j`ai pose.
J`y tiens. J`ai ete banni d`un forum pour avoir ose dire non.
Que l`on me donne des chiffres et non des formules.
Je peux avoir les chiffres sur mon tableur ou ici :
http://jean-paul.davalan.pagesperso-ora … index.html
- Bemo52
- 10-11-2014 18:25:41
Bemo52 a écrit :Resalut,
Toujours pas de reponse?
La loi binomiale n`est pas la reponse a mon humble avis (houla, t'en es capable? )
Je me suis deja engueule avec un mec a ce sujet.
Le seul moyen de verifier cela est la simulation.
J`attends vos avis d`experts en la matiere.Merci
Salut,
C'est bien cela le problème avec toi, aucun respect pour personne. Du coup, ici, t'es un peu tricard tant que tu ne changeras pas d'attitude envers les intervenants.
Pour la solution sans simulation, il suffit de développer la fonction génératrice de chaque essai et de répéter mille fois l'expérience.
Je pose [tex]p = \Pr (0)[/tex] dont je ne connais pas la valeur puisqu'on a aucune hypothèse sur l'équilibre de la pièce et on a :
[tex]G_X=\left(p+(1-p)\times \left(p+(1-p)\times X\right)\right)^{100}=\left(p(2-p)+(1-p)^2X\right)^{100}[/tex]
Et comme on vérifie que : [tex]p(2-p) + (1-p)^2 =1[/tex], à mon très humble avis, c'est bien une [tex]\mathcal{B}(p(2-p),\, 100)[/tex]
Maintenant que la simulation a ete faite merci Yoshi, j`attends toujours les chiffres donnes par la loi binomiale (3/4,100) p etant suppose egale a 1/2.
Merci
- Bemo52
- 10-11-2014 16:51:46
Salut,
@yoshi : ou alors tu lui donne le script python et il se charge de le faire tourner?
@Bemo52 : Pour ton histoire de joueur qui attend le "bon" moment pour jouer, si les lancers sont indépendants, peu importe le résultat du lancer précédent, il aura toujours un chance sur deux de gagner.
Autre remarque, tu as parlé de roulette et de pair/impair. Attention, la proba de gagner n'est pas de 1/2, mais de 17/36. En effet, au jeu de la roulette, le zéro n'est ni pair, ni impair (ni rouge, ni noir).
Salut,
Je sais tout cela et tu ne m`apprend rien sauf que tu n`as toujours pas compris ce que je dis.
C`est un modele tres simplifie que je donne. Tu ne sais pas encore ou je vais.
La question n`est pas d`attendre le bon moment pour jouer. C`est une caricature de ce que j`ai propose. A aucun moment, je n`ai dit que c`est le bon moment pour jouer ou pas. J`ai decrit une methode de jeu tout simplement. Le resultat global des 2000 lancers donne un benefice global. Est-ce le fait du hasard ou est-ce le fait d`une structure cachee a decouvrir?
Je n`en sais rien mais j`ai mon idee.
Bref, merci pour tout.
- tibo
- 10-11-2014 16:20:50
Salut,
@yoshi : ou alors tu lui donne le script python et il se charge de le faire tourner?
@Bemo52 : Pour ton histoire de joueur qui attend le "bon" moment pour jouer, si les lancers sont indépendants, peu importe le résultat du lancer précédent, il aura toujours un chance sur deux de gagner.
Autre remarque, tu as parlé de roulette et de pair/impair. Attention, la proba de gagner n'est pas de 1/2, mais de 17/36. En effet, au jeu de la roulette, le zéro n'est ni pair, ni impair (ni rouge, ni noir).
- Bemo52
- 10-11-2014 16:19:23
Merci pour l`info sauf que son probleme est different du mien.
Je m`explique :
Le hasard est ce qu`il est.
Je ne cherche pas a predire.
Imaginons qu`il existe un certain nombre de methodes de jeu.
Notons leur nombre k.
Imaginons que l`ensemble de ces methodes independantes couvre tout le champ des possibles.
Chacune de ces methodes va realiser des gains ou des pertes a un instant t.
Si on arrive a trouver un instant t tel que ces k methodes puissent GLOBALEMENT degager un profit avec une probabilite de 100% on brise le systeme.
Est-ce possible?
Je dis oui meme si pour l`instant j`ai du mal a le prouver.
Meme jeu avec 2 joueurs :
Le joueur 1 mise un euro a l`instant t quand le 1 s`affiche au lancer t-1. Il ne mise rien a l`instant t quand le 0 s`affiche a l`instant t-1
Le joueur 2 mise un euro a l`instant s quand le 0 s`affiche au lancer s-1. Il ne mise rien a l`instant s quand le 1 s`affiche a l`instant s-1
Des que le benefice cumule atteint 5 le joueur 1 ou 2 s`arrete de jouer et l`on note le nombre de lancers effectue. L`autre joueur 1 ou 2 continue de jouer jusqu`a atteindre le benefice de 5 ou plus. On note alors le nombre de lancers effectue pour le second joueur.
Le nombre de lancers est indefini dans cette seconde hypothese.
Tu verras un truc bizarre : le nombre de lancers requis pour avoir 2 benefs de 5 pour les 2 joueurs est tres peu variable.
- yoshi
- 10-11-2014 15:55:53
Salut,
Tiens, alors voilà 2000 essais consécutifs de 100 lancers :
[(15, 24, 23, 8), (20, 29, 15, -5), (15, 40, 15, 0), (23, 28, 13, -10), (19, 20, 21, 2), (17, 36, 15, -2), (17, 39, 13, -4), (8, 46, 19, 11), (17, 37, 14, -3), (16, 32, 18, 2), (13, 36, 19, 6), (12, 43, 16, 4), (14, 39, 16, 2), (14, 31, 20, 6), (18, 35, 14, -4), (21, 34, 12, -9), (21, 26, 16, -5), (15, 30, 20, 5), (13, 34, 20, 7), (13, 39, 17, 4), (15, 30, 20, 5), (18, 30, 17, -1), (18, 32, 16, -2), (14, 31, 20, 6), (13, 34, 20, 7), (15, 36, 17, 2), (17, 28, 19, 2), (19, 37, 12, -7), (17, 25, 20, 3), (11, 49, 14, 3), (15, 37, 16, 1), (16, 38, 15, -1), (24, 33, 9, -15), (15, 34, 18, 3), (15, 28, 21, 6), (20, 26, 17, -3), (17, 32, 17, 0), (15, 31, 19, 4), (18, 47, 8, -10), (14, 34, 19, 5), (19, 37, 12, -7), (15, 25, 22, 7), (14, 39, 16, 2), (18, 28, 18, 0), (18, 38, 13, -5), (15, 32, 19, 4), (20, 22, 19, -1), (18, 35, 14, -4), (20, 27, 16, -4), (19, 24, 19, 0), (9, 38, 22, 13), (12, 30, 23, 11), (13, 39, 17, 4), (17, 31, 17, 0), (16, 40, 14, -2), (18, 26, 19, 1), (23, 36, 9, -14), (14, 22, 25, 11), (13, 31, 21, 8), (16, 40, 14, -2), (19, 34, 14, -5), (19, 28, 17, -2), (15, 40, 15, 0), (17, 35, 15, -2), (20, 32, 14, -6), (19, 26, 18, -1), (18, 34, 15, -3), (16, 28, 20, 4), (11, 33, 22, 11), (18, 28, 18, 0), (18, 25, 19, 1), (18, 36, 14, -4), (14, 35, 18, 4), (23, 28, 13, -10), (21, 31, 13, -8), (18, 38, 13, -5), (13, 46, 14, 1), (18, 39, 12, -6), (16, 32, 18, 2), (13, 41, 16, 3), (10, 42, 19, 9), (19, 30, 16, -3), (17, 32, 17, 0), (17, 33, 16, -1), (12, 38, 19, 7), (22, 34, 11, -11), (22, 36, 10, -12), (16, 36, 16, 0), (16, 48, 10, -6), (17, 35, 15, -2), (12, 40, 18, 6), (15, 35, 17, 2), (14, 33, 19, 5), (12, 30, 23, 11), (21, 29, 14, -7), (16, 40, 14, -2), (15, 32, 19, 4), (12, 35, 20, 8), (16, 34, 17, 1), (17, 34, 16, -1), (14, 37, 17, 3), (20, 34, 13, -7), (13, 36, 19, 6), (20, 26, 17, -3), (16, 32, 18, 2), (16, 30, 19, 3), (15, 29, 20, 5), (19, 27, 17, -2), (16, 42, 13, -3), (21, 31, 13, -8), (17, 36, 15, -2), (18, 44, 10, -8), (18, 34, 15, -3), (14, 26, 23, 9), (16, 30, 19, 3), (20, 34, 13, -7), (15, 36, 17, 2), (17, 43, 11, -6), (19, 31, 15, -4), (15, 31, 19, 4), (18, 26, 19, 1), (17, 26, 20, 3), (12, 26, 25, 13), (16, 38, 15, -1), (18, 40, 12, -6), (19, 28, 17, -2), (14, 35, 18, 4), (16, 16, 26, 10), (11, 42, 18, 7), (16, 38, 15, -1), (19, 29, 16, -3), (17, 32, 17, 0), (19, 34, 14, -5), (11, 44, 17, 6), (12, 41, 17, 5), (12, 34, 21, 9), (14, 29, 21, 7), (15, 32, 19, 4), (13, 38, 18, 5), (19, 32, 15, -4), (13, 34, 20, 7), (16, 34, 17, 1), (14, 50, 11, -3), (19, 29, 16, -3), (18, 35, 14, -4), (17, 27, 19, 2), (14, 35, 18, 4), (18, 30, 17, -1), (16, 29, 19, 3), (16, 30, 19, 3), (20, 27, 16, -4), (14, 40, 16, 2), (18, 32, 16, -2), (17, 26, 20, 3), (13, 40, 17, 4), (17, 32, 17, 0), (14, 40, 16, 2), (17, 38, 14, -3), (19, 34, 14, -5), (14, 43, 14, 0), (17, 30, 18, 1), (14, 36, 18, 4), (15, 40, 15, 0), (17, 36, 15, -2), (20, 37, 11, -9), (17, 25, 20, 3), (15, 38, 16, 1), (20, 44, 8, -12), (20, 32, 14, -6), (18, 32, 16, -2), (14, 28, 22, 8), (17, 26, 20, 3), (20, 36, 12, -8), (18, 38, 13, -5), (16, 31, 18, 2), (11, 42, 18, 7), (11, 50, 14, 3), (15, 26, 22, 7), (15, 38, 16, 1), (17, 38, 14, -3), (15, 32, 19, 4), (15, 28, 21, 6), (16, 22, 23, 7), (17, 40, 13, -4), (18, 35, 14, -4), (19, 32, 15, -4), (17, 19, 23, 6), (20, 22, 19, -1), (18, 34, 15, -3), (15, 33, 18, 3), (19, 36, 13, -6), (16, 29, 19, 3), (13, 33, 20, 7), (12, 40, 18, 6), (13, 44, 15, 2), (20, 37, 11, -9), (17, 32, 17, 0), (11, 38, 20, 9), (19, 28, 17, -2), (16, 33, 17, 1), (18, 35, 14, -4), (20, 36, 12, -8), (22, 32, 12, -10), (11, 35, 21, 10), (13, 40, 17, 4), (22, 34, 11, -11), (15, 32, 19, 4), (15, 38, 16, 1), (25, 29, 10, -15), (11, 38, 20, 9), (18, 34, 15, -3), (13, 36, 19, 6), (17, 30, 18, 1), (16, 44, 12, -4), (21, 27, 15, -6), (21, 34, 12, -9), (13, 32, 21, 8), (20, 39, 10, -10), (17, 30, 18, 1), (17, 31, 17, 0), (12, 38, 19, 7), (14, 41, 15, 1), (21, 26, 16, -5), (19, 28, 17, -2), (22, 33, 11, -11), (16, 29, 19, 3), (16, 39, 14, -2), (17, 30, 18, 1), (16, 32, 18, 2), (13, 42, 16, 3), (20, 34, 13, -7), (19, 34, 14, -5), (16, 25, 21, 5), (11, 34, 22, 11), (17, 44, 11, -6), (17, 29, 18, 1), (17, 35, 15, -2), (20, 26, 17, -3), (12, 30, 23, 11), (18, 35, 14, -4), (19, 34, 14, -5), (18, 34, 15, -3), (20, 38, 11, -9), (8, 46, 19, 11), (14, 31, 20, 6), (22, 32, 12, -10), (18, 31, 16, -2), (14, 37, 17, 3), (22, 27, 14, -8), (25, 26, 12, -13), (20, 42, 9, -11), (16, 34, 17, 1), (14, 40, 16, 2), (12, 32, 22, 10), (14, 36, 18, 4), (24, 26, 13, -11), (20, 39, 10, -10), (16, 35, 16, 0), (12, 36, 20, 8), (18, 34, 15, -3), (15, 34, 18, 3), (14, 36, 18, 4), (19, 27, 17, -2), (14, 29, 21, 7), (13, 33, 20, 7), (16, 33, 17, 1), (15, 26, 22, 7), (19, 34, 14, -5), (16, 36, 16, 0), (14, 38, 17, 3), (16, 36, 16, 0), (16, 26, 21, 5), (19, 28, 17, -2), (14, 40, 16, 2), (22, 34, 11, -11), (19, 34, 14, -5), (20, 27, 16, -4), (18, 36, 14, -4), (10, 36, 22, 12), (18, 32, 16, -2), (19, 35, 13, -6), (9, 34, 24, 15), (20, 34, 13, -7), (16, 32, 18, 2), (16, 24, 22, 6), 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Y a un autre gars avant toi qui cherchait des trucs pour les tirages...
Va voir là :
http://www.bibmath.net/forums/viewtopic.php?id=6736
10000 c'est possible, sans pb, mais résultats par mail dans fichier .odt ou .pdf...
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